Although production of domestic crude oil is supposed to increase in 2009 by 400,000 bbl/d, the price of oil is predicted to continue its upward trend through 2010 according to the EIA (Energy Information Administration).
The production of domestic crude oil will rise for the first time since 1991 because of the Gulf of Mexico Thunder Horse platform (online now) and the Tahiti platform is expected to come on stream later this year. The EIA is predicting 5.35 million bbl/d in 2009.
While prices over the past year have ranged from up to $150 per barrel in July and back down to $30 per barrel at the end of 2008, the EIA is predicting oil prices to average $43 per barrel in 2009. That should rise to $55 per barrel in 2010. But the analysts point out things could change with "the possibility of a milder recession or faster economic recovery, lower non-OPEC production because of the current low oil prices and financial market constraints, and more aggressive action to lower production by OPEC countries could lead to a faster and stronger recovery in oil prices."
The EIA is projecting gas prices to average $1.95 in 2009 and $2.19 in 2010.
But the figure they provide makes me pause a moment and think hard about their predictions. It's almost like the childhood figures that ask you to spot the differences between picture A and picture B.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
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