Do We Really Want Green Cars

According to US News and World Report, "Despite all the hype surrounding hybrid and electric cars, some people just aren’t buying it. According to a new study, “some people” are most consumers."

That really doesn't cut it with me. Despite the hype and the hysteria surrounding the sales of hybrids, most people don't take into account hybrid car costs. But even though hybrid cars and SUVs are still luxury items, over 1% of the US market comes from Prius sales.

Let me repeat that in a slightly different way: 1 out of every 100 cars sold is a Prius.

There are very few cars that can say they make up such a large percentage of US consumers.  There are even fewer luxury cars that even come close to it.  Other hybrid cars aren't as fuel efficient, aren't as inexpensive and just plain aren't as good as the Prius. Which is why the Prius still dominates the hybrid car market place.

In the same article, JD Powers and Associates predicts that by 2020, over 7 percent of the passenger vehicles sold will be hybrids. Do you know of any other luxury option that will be doing as well?

End of Government Help Means Lower Prius Sales in Japan

The BBC is reporting the end of government subsidies has led to a drop in Prius sales in Japan. For almost a year and a half, Toyota has sold more Prius each month than in the prior year.

The Prius has also been the most popular car in Japan since the subsidies started. But with the end of the subsidies has come a drop of 14% over last years sales numbers. The Prius was still the number one car in September, however.

The Honda Fit was the second most popular car in Japan according the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA).

"The Prius remains hugely popular, but its sales tumbled due to the end of green car subsidies," said association spokesman Toshiki Miyake.

"Many consumers put off decisions to buy green cars following the end of government incentives."

The Prius will continue to be the most popular car for months to come, as the back log of orders is still being filled.

One Million Prius Sold in Japan and Counting

Although Toyota started selling the Prius in 1997, it wasn't until 2007 the 1 million milestone was passed. After that, it only took until 2009 to pass the 2 million mark. Now, with the incentives still in full swing and a backlog of orders, hybrid sales in Japan alone have passed the million marker. The Prius has been the top selling car in Japan for 15 months straight.

Worldwide sales have topped 2.68 million.

Toyota estimates that the hybrid vehicles they have sold since 1997 have led to approximately 4 million fewer tons3 of CO2 emissions—considered to be a cause of global warming—in Japan, and approximately 15 million fewer tons globally, than would have been emitted by gasoline-powered vehicles of similar size and driving performance.

TMC Hybrid Vehicle Chronology
Year Month Milestone
1997 Mar. Toyota Hybrid System unveiled
1997 Aug. Coaster Hybrid EV launched (Japan only)
1997 Dec. Prius launched
2000 Nov. Cumulative Prius sales top 50,000 vehicles
2001 Jun. Estima Hybrid launched (Japan only)
2001 Aug. Crown Mild Hybrid launched (Japan only)
2002 Mar. Cumulative hybrid vehicle sales top 100,000 mark
2002 Aug. Cumulative Prius sales top 100,000 vehicles
2003 Apr. Toyota Hybrid System II unveiled
2003 Jul. Alphard Hybrid launched (Japan only)
2003 Sep. Second-generation Prius launched
2003 Nov. Dyna Hybrid and Toyoace Hybrid launched (Japan only)
2005 Mar. Harrier Hybrid (RX400h outside Japan) and Kluger Hybrid (Highlander Hybrid) launched
2005 Oct. Cumulative hybrid vehicle sales top 500,000 mark
2005 Dec. Prius production commenced at SFTM's Changchun Plant, China
2006 Mar. GS450h launched in Japan
2006 Apr. Cumulative Prius sales top 500,000 vehicles
2006 May Camry Hybrid launched (for sale outside Japan)
2006 Jun. Redesigned Estima Hybrid launched (Japan only)
2006 Oct. Camry Hybrid production commenced at TMMK's plant in the U.S.; Quick Delivery
2007 May Cumulative hybrid vehicle sales top 1-million mark; LS600h/LS600hL launched
2008 Feb. Crown Hybrid unveiled (launched in April; Japan only)
2008 May Cumulative Prius sales top 1 million vehicles
2009 Jan. RX450h unveiled (launched in April)
2009 May Third-generation Prius launched
2009 Jul. Camry Hybrid production commenced at the Gateway Plant, Thailand; HS250h launched
2009 Aug. Cumulative hybrid vehicle sales top 2-million mark
2009 Oct. Sai unveiled (launched in December, Japan only)
2009 Dec. Camry Hybrid production commenced at the TMCA's Altona Plant, Australia
2010 Apr. Camry Hybrid production commenced at the GTMC's plant in China
2010 Jun. Auris Hybrid production commenced at the TMUK's Burnaston Plant, UK; Auris Hybrid launched (for sale outside Japan)
2010 Jul. Cumulative sales in Japan of TMC hybrids top 1 million units

Prius is Number One For One Year

The Prius was once again the top selling car in Japan. That makes it one year since Toyota and their small hybrid took it away from the Honda Insight, just after the new generation Prius was launched.

According to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) and the Japan Mini Vehicles Association, Toyota sold 27,208 Prius in Japan last month. And there's still a six month waiting list, so Toyota will continue to dominate for some time to come.

Lexus HS 250h is Under Target

Sales of the HS 250h, the first dedicated luxury hybrid from Lexus, is well below what Toyota had targeted (source: Ward). Initially, Lexus thought they could sell 25,000-30,000 HS annually. But after the rush of sales in Japan, Lexus started keeping more units in Japan, rather than shipping them to the US.  Lexus subsequently downgraded their target to 20,000-22,000 units annually.

"Right now, there’s so much demand for that product in Japan…maybe 20,000-22,000 might be more realistic," Mark Templin, Lexus Div. group vice president and general manager-Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc., told Ward’s in November.

But now the feeling is that target may have been a stretch.

"I think we underestimated the power of the Prius brand," he says, referring to the Toyota brand’s purpose-built hybrid. "And we overestimated what the market would look like based on gas prices. But if we can do over 1,000 units a month, 1,000-1,500 units a month, we feel really good about what we’re doing in the marketplace."

Since August, when the HS 250h first went on sale, Lexus has sold just over 11,000 units. So far in 2010, they are on target to sell under 14,000 units.

The HS 250h has been affected by more than just the Prius. The Toyota recalls have affected Lexus sales, and the soft market in auto sales has been lingering.

Prius is Top Seller in Japan for 11 Months Straight

The Japan Automobile Dealers Association noted the Prius was once again the top selling car in Japan. Helped by government incentives, the Prius has been and will continue to be the top selling car for months.

Toyota sold 35,546 units in March. That's 11 months in a row the Prius has held the top spot, which was briefly held by the Honda Insight before the third generation Prius came to market.

Sales have quadrupled in Japan this year. Toyota has sold over a quarter of a million units so far (277,485)

Hybrid Car Sales, February 2010

Hybrid car sales were up 5.4% for the month of February, which would seem to indicate a good month and is also indicative of an overall recovery in the car market.  But individual model sales are more of a mixed bag.  Some were up, some were down, and the overall increase does not seem to reflect a lot of what might be expected.

Also, keep in mind that hybrid car sales were down by 30% in February, 2009 compared to February 2008.  The recession was in full force and overall light duty car sales were down by 40% (which means hybrids were a bright spot even if they were down 30%).  So, a 5 percent gain this month is nice, but not exactly the best they could be.

Monthly Sales		February 2009		February 2010		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Ford	Escape/Mariner	1,294	8.3	782	4.8	-39.6
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0.0	1,317	8.0	0.0
GM	Escalade	0	0.0	146	0.9	0.0
GM	Silverado/Sierra	47	0.3	106	0.6	125.5
GM	Tahoe/Yukon	632	4.0	169	1.0	-73.3
Honda	Accord	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Honda	Civic	1,362	8.7	346	2.1	-74.6
Honda	Insight	0	0.0	2,014	12.2	0.0
Nissan	Altima	463	3.0	619	3.8	33.7
Toyota	Camry	2,080	13.3	1,011	6.1	-51.4
Toyota	GS 450h	22	0.1	22	0.1	0.0
Toyota	HS 250h	0	0.0	712	4.3	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	956	6.1	339	2.1	-64.5
Toyota	LS600hL	22	0.1	15	0.1	-31.8
Toyota	Prius	7,232	46.3	7,968	48.4	10.2
Toyota	RX 400h	1,502	9.6	890	5.4	-40.7
Total		15,612		16,456		5.4
Cumulative Sales		Cumulative 2009		Cumulative 2010		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Ford	Escape/Mariner	2,174	7.1	1,497	4.5	-31.1
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0.0	2,469	7.4	0.0
GM	Escalade	132	0.4	198	0.6	50.0
GM	Silverado/Sierra	54	0.2	203	0.6	275.9
GM	Tahoe/Yukon	1,099	3.6	395	1.2	-64.1
Honda	Accord	1	0.0	0	0.0	-100.0
Honda	Civic	2,438	7.9	599	1.8	-75.4
Honda	Insight	0	0.0	3,321	9.9	0.0
Nissan	Altima	1,107	3.6	1,678	5.0	51.6
Toyota	Camry	3,221	10.5	1,878	5.6	-41.7
Toyota	GS 450h	63	0.2	63	0.2	0.0
Toyota	HS 250h	0	0.0	1,959	5.8	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	1,940	6.3	865	2.6	-55.4
Toyota	LS600hL	55	0.2	24	0.1	-56.4
Toyota	Prius	15,353	50.0	16,452	49.1	7.2
Toyota	RX 400h	3,058	10.0	1,906	5.7	-37.7
Total		30,695		33,507		9.2

Some assumptions you might make about hybrid sales this month just don't seem to be panning out.  For instance, the Toyota recalls should be affecting sales, especially with the Prius which is one of the models involved.  Although overall Toyota/Lexus hybrid car sales were down by 7.3% as Toyota overall light duty sales were way down this month, the Prius remains unaffected, however.  Prius sales were up by 10%, as heavy incentives, plus a waiting list on the Prius and an artificial limit on the numbers being imported right now have kept the pressure up. 

Japanese Prius sales are still sky high, with a six month waiting list on the Prius.  That means Toyota is not shipping as many Prius to the US.  That means there are still people who are having to wait for the Prius they ordered.  It's unclear if Toyota can keep that up in the coming months, but they are continuing to offer incentives on hybrids in February.

Also keep in mind that four new models are keeping things up, since they weren't being sold last February.  The Honda Insight, Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan Hybrids launched in March, so we'll have a better idea next month of how well they are doing.

Overall, Ford, Honda and Nissan were up from last year, which may indicate they were able to take advantage of the bad news surrounding Toyota.  Also, the Cadillac Escalade Hybrid was up 125% with big rebates being offered. 

Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, February 2009
Hybrid Car Sales, January 2010

Prius is on Top of Sales Charts in Japan Despite Recall

Not surprisingly, the Toyota Prius  was still Japan's number one selling car, despite recall and some cancellations from concerned customers.

Over 27,000 units were sold in February, which handily beat out the second best selling car in Japan, the Honda Fit, which sold 14,000 units.

The incentives offered on hybrids and other low consumption vehicles has kept the sales fever high in Japan for months, which has create a huge waiting list (over six months) for the Toyota Prius.  And so, even though the recall has affected the perception of Toyota and their safety, sales of the Prius have not been affected as the cars being delivered now were sold months ago.

Hybrid Car Sales, January 2010

Hybrid car sales were up compared to last year, with reported full hybrid sales increasing to 17,051 units sold.  That's an increase of 13.0% from last year.  That's still below the levels from 2007 and 2008 (pre-Recession).

Monthly Sales		January 2009		January 2010		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Ford	Escape/Mariner	880	5.8	715	4.2	-18.8
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0.0	1,152	6.8	0.0
GM	Escalade	132	0.9	52	0.3	-60.6
GM	Silverado/Sierra	7	0.0	97	0.6	1285.7
GM	Tahoe/Yukon	467	3.1	226	1.3	-51.6
Honda	Accord	1	0.0	0	0.0	-100.0
Honda	Civic	1,076	7.1	253	1.5	-76.5
Honda	Insight	0	0.0	1,307	7.7	0.0
Nissan	Altima	644	4.3	1,059	6.2	64.4
Toyota	Camry	1,141	7.6	867	5.1	-24.0
Toyota	GS 450h	41	0.3	41	0.2	0.0
Toyota	HS 250h	0	0.0	1,247	7.3	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	984	6.5	526	3.1	-46.5
Toyota	LS600hL	33	0.2	9	0.1	-72.7
Toyota	Prius	8,121	53.8	8,484	49.8	4.5
Toyota	RX 400h	1,556	10.3	1,016	6.0	-34.7
Total		15,083		17,051		13.0

Prius sales accounted for half of all hybrids sold last month, giving Toyota a 71% market share.  That's about 7% down from last year.  Ford almost doubled their share, while Honda and Nissan also went up by 2% each.
 
In total, Toyota, Nissan, Ford, and Honda all increased sales from last year, while GM was down 38% from last year.  Since GM sells the most hybrid SUVs and Trucks, the percentage of hybrid cars sold was way up from last January.

Monthly Sales	January 2009		January 2010		% Change
Make	N	%	N	%
Ford	880	5.8	1,867	10.9	112.2
GM	606	4.0	375	2.2	-38.1
Honda	1,077	7.1	1,560	9.1	44.8
Nissan	644	4.3	1,059	6.2	64.4
Toyota	11,876	78.7	12,190	71.5	2.6
Total	15,083		17,051		13.0

Monthly Sales	January 2009		January 2010		% Change
Make	N	%	N	%
Car	11,057	73.3	14,419	84.6	30.4
SUV	4,019	26.6	2,535	14.9	-36.9
Truck	7	0.0	97	0.6	1285.7
Total	15,083		17,051		13.0

The recall on the Prius and Lexus HS 250h did not have an effect last month, as it was not well known, yet.  It's possible, however, the recall won't have an effect at all, with some sources saying interest has actually increased since the recall was made public.

Individual model sales seemed to be down somewhat, with the increase due to an increase in the number of models being sold.  For instance, the Insight made up for the drop in Civic Hybrids from Honda, while the HS 250h helped increase Toyota hybrid sales.

Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, December 2009 and Cumulative 2009
Hybrid Car Sales, January 2009.

Prius Bargain Shoppers

Surprising results, to say the least. According to Edmunds.com, shoppers are more interested in the Prius than ever after all the news regarding the problems with the braking software.
"Are Problems a Selling Tool? Prius Purchase Intent Rises With Brake Woe News" Green Car Advisor

"When a car or automaker receives bad press, people sense an opportunity" to get a better price through distress sales or incentives, he said. "We saw the same reaction from consumers when Chrysler and General Motors declared bankruptcy."

Is this really a good thing?

I'm not sure you'll be able to find a bargain on the Prius right now, anyways. Despite the problems you've been hearing about, the Prius you find on the lot already has the fix in place.

Also, there is a waiting list as a lot of the inventory is being redirected to Japan, where the demand is still very, very high. The waiting list in Japan is months, possibly a year, in advance at this point. So, what we're getting in the US is set to a point where they can keep demand high enough to keep the waiting lists, but low enough they can sell more in Japan.

Toyota (Prius) Hybrid Sales Were Up in January Despite Recall

Prius and other Toyota hybrid sales are up this month, which may be a little bit surprising given all the issues surrounding Toyota right now.  In total, Prius sales were up by 13%, while Toyota hybrid sales were up 2.6%

Where the Prius goes, so goes hybrid sales in general.  So that means that hybrid car sales for January will also likely be up from last January, although I haven't gotten all the numbers, yet.

Keep in mind that Prius sales, and hybrid car sales in general, were way down in January.  The next generation Prius was coming and customers were holding off on buying the old generation Prius and Toyota was no longer supplying them in great numbers.  They were just trying to clear the inventory before the new 2010 model showed up on dealer lots.

Prius Top Seller in Japan for 2009

The Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JAMA) is reporting the Prius has continued its hot streak in Japan. In fact, it's the number one car in Japan for 2009, the first time a hybrid has taken the title.

JAMA is reporting Toyota sold 208,876 Prius in 2009, which is almost 3X as many as they sold last year. Sales have been pushed by a government incentive program. The incentives add up as much as 294,500 yen (just over $4 thousand) on a car that can cost between 2.05 million to 3.27 million yen depending on the options drivers want.

According to a Business Week source, Toyota makes about 200,000 yen off of each Prius it sells. Although that's less profit than they would make on a Crown (1 million yen) or the Lexus LS (2 million yen).

The government incentive program is set to end on September 30.

Ever since the third generation Prius launched in Japan, it has topped the sales charts.   And it has stayed there despite the very long waiting list.  If you order a Prius today in Japan, you won't get it for months.  And so, because of the long waiting lists, the Prius has a very good chance of becoming the top selling car in Japan for 2010, too.

Hybrid Car Sales, December 2009

Hybrid cars sales were up in December 2009 by 46.3% from last December, for a total of 24,690 units sold.  Most of that increase comes from Prius, which improved by almost 50% from last year. 

The thing to note about that, however, is Toyota was winding down the second generation Prius and getting ready for the third generation Prius.  But, at the same time, it could be argued Toyota has been rerouting Prius sales to Japan, where it's the number one selling car in the country right now.  So, this months total is likely lower than they could be.

A couple of things to keep in mind with these numbers.  I am not reporting mild hybrid sales here (Vue, Aura, and Malibu).  Also, sales of the new S400 hybrid were not broken out by Mercedes-Benz, so I can' add them in here.  And, GM did not break down their sales by model, so unlike other months, I'm just reporting GM total hybrid car sales.

 

Monthly Sales		December 2008		December 2009		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Chrysler	Aspen/Durango	46	0.3	0	0	-100.0
Ford	Escape/Mariner	1149	6.8	1157	4.7	0.7
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0	1686	6.8	0.0
GM	Total	1729	10	931	3.8	-46.2
Honda	Accord	1	0	0	0	-100.0
Honda	Civic	1036	6.1	471	1.9	-54.5
Honda	Insight	0	0	1639	6.6	0.0
Nissan	Altima	710	4.2	842	3.4	18.6
Toyota	Camry	1888	11	1513	6.1	-19.9
Toyota	GS	51	0.3	54	0.2	5.9
Toyota	HS	0	0	1980	8	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	890	5.3	1029	4.2	15.6
Toyota	LS	50	0.3	15	0.1	-70.0
Toyota	Prius	7859	47	11775	48	49.8
Toyota	RX	1463	8.7	1598	6.5	9.2
Total		16872		24690		46.3
Cumulative Sales		Cumulative 2008		Cumulative 2009		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Chrysler	Aspen/Durango	81	0	0	0	-100.0
Ford	Escape/Mariner	19522	6.3	16480	5.8	-15.6
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0	17022	6	0.0
GM	Total	6677	2.2	8797	3.1	31.8
Honda	Accord	198	0.1	1	0	-99.5
Honda	Civic	31297	10	15119	5.3	-51.7
Honda	Insight	0	0	20572	7.3	0.0
Nissan	Altima	8819	2.9	9357	3.3	6.1
Toyota	Camry	46272	15	22887	8.1	-50.5
Toyota	GS	678	0.2	469	0.2	-30.8
Toyota	HS	0	0	6699	2.4	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	19391	6.3	11086	3.9	-42.8
Toyota	LS	980	0.3	258	0.1	-73.7
Toyota	Prius	158886	52	139682	49	-12.1
Toyota	RX	15200	4.9	14464	5.1	-4.8
Total		308001		282893		-8.2

Ford, Nissan, GM, Honda and Toyota Hybrid Car Sales in December 2009
Ford Escape and Mariner Hybrid sales held steady, but Fords overall hybrid sales are way up with the introduction of the new Fusion and Milan Hybrids.  Nissan Hybrid sales were also up, but given the limited distribution of the Altima Hybrid and Nissan sales don't really impact the overall picture.

GM Hybrid sales were down by over 46%, which is not a good indicator, given the other car makers were all up, but the picture is a little cloudier than first impressions make it out to be.  Individual model sales were up and down across the board, but overall sales were buoyed by the introduction of new models (Fusion and Milan) and the Prius 'rebound' from last year.

Toyota, as usual, dominated hybrid car sales, accounting for over 70% of the hybrid car market. 

Fusion Impacting Other Hybrid Sales?
Probably the most interesting thing to notice this month is the possible impact the Fusion/Milan Hybrid is having.  Although nothing seems to impact the Prius sales (except for itself as it goes through new generations, gets re-routed or whatever), the Civic Hybrid and Camry Hybrid sales have been suffering.  My guess is customers are opting for the new Fusion and Insight and the HS 250h.  It's not enough to be hybrid, now that there are options out there.  It's likely that customers are more aware now there are other possibilities, comparing those options, and are opting for the best features. 

Based on previous polls, hybrid car buyers are choosing their cars for the image and status, with little regard to the cost, which may indicate why the HS has done well so far.  And the Fusion/Milan hybrids may be doing so well at the expense of the Civic and Camry Hybrids because it offers better fuel economy, while not stripping out any luxuries you might want. 

At the same time, the Insight has not been the Prius killer some expected, since the lower cost which was supposed to appeal, just isn't that appealing to those who are going to buy hybrid.  Until the price really comes down farther (almost $20,000 isn't exactly a bargain after all), hybrid buyers are not opting to go cheaper at the expense of mileage.

Cumulative Hybrid Car Sales for 2009
I've already spoken a bit about the cumulative totals, but I'll just sum up my thoughts once again. 

The cumulative reported hybrid car sales for 2009 are down by 8.2%.  That isn't bad, compared to the overall decline of over 20% for light vehicle sales.

Cumulative Sales	Cumulative 2008		Cumulative 2009		% Change
Make	N	%	N	%
Chrysler	81	0.0	0	0.0	-100.0
Ford	19,522	6.3	33,502	11.8	71.6
GM	6,677	2.2	8,797	3.1	31.8
Honda	31,495	10.2	35,692	12.6	13.3
Nissan	8,819	2.9	9,357	3.3	6.1
Toyota	241,407	78.4	195,545	69.1	-19.0
Total	308,001		282,893		-8.2

GM cumulative hybrid sales were up by almost 32% from last year, with the introduction of the Sierra and Silverado Hybrids helping.  But the SUV and truck hybrid market GM has focues on doesn't seem to be making a big impact in the overall hybrid market.  That leaves them behind even Nissan despite having five models to Nissan's one.  GM would probably be quick to point out they have three other models, but they are all mild hybrids and are soon to be phased out of production anyways.  Instead, they will be launching themselves into the plug-in hybrid world in the coming year.

Nissan increased their sales overall by 6.1%, marking a solid increase by the Altima Hybrid, which is unusual.  Most of the car makers increased sales from last year because they introduced new models, while Nissan still has just the one (which is made with Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive).  But sales are still limited to just eight states, making Nissan a bit player in the hybrid market.

Ford's hybrid sales were way up, marking a 71% gain over last year.  Unfortunately, that's due to a doubling of their hybrid models from 2 to 4.  Which means the gains aren't as impressive as you might first think.  It's still not bad, and I'm sure Ford is very happy to see their market share increase to just behind Honda.

Honda hybrid car sales were up by 12.6%, marking the transition they have been making away from the Civic Hybrid to the Insight, which seems to be stealing sales away from the Civic Hybrid.  While not the numbers Honda had hoped for from the Insight so far, it still puts them in second place.

Toyota sales were down for the year by 19%, despite the introduction of their new HS model.  But since their new model, as compared to the Fusion/Milan and Insight, is a luxury model, the sales numbers for the HS are very good so far.  But the low numbers didn't help make up for the lower numbers across the board from the other models.  The Prius, especially, suffered as the transition was made from the second generation to the third generation.  Sales rebounded immediately after the introduction of the new model, but not enough to make up for the slowdown at the beginning of the year.

Where To From Here?
Keep in mind that sales in 2008 were down from 2007 (almost 10%), which just goes to show you how badly and how long the recession has been affecting car sales in general.  Again, hybrids outperformed the overall market by a handy margin, showing fuel economy is still a big factor in people's thinking.  So even thought the market may been lowered, hybrids are still showing they are a strong emerging market.

The future is in a bit of a flux, however.  The introduction of the Chevy Volt, even in limited numbers, will push hybrids in a whole new direction.  Other smaller car makers will also be entering the arena with their hybrids, mostly luxury models.  In other words, hybrids are truly transitioning from niche to something else. 

Yes, they still only made up 2.8% of the overall market, but more and more car makers are focusing in on hybrids or diesels or plugs for the future.  And with the new fuel economy regulations (CAFE rules and in California), automakers are going to have to do what they can to increase their fleet fuel economy.  So, 2010-2012 should see quite an uptick in hybrid penetration.

Related Posts:
Hybrid Car Sales in 2008
Hybrid Car Sales, December 2008
Hybrid Car Sales, November 2009

Sales are Up in December for Hybrids

With most of the results in, it looks like December will be a big month for hybrids.  Although they won't match the sales from December, 2007, they are already up over 45% from last December.

Toyota, Honda and Ford were all up by 60%, 103% and 147% respectively. 

There is one caveat to those.  The Prius (which dominated hybrid car sales, accounting for 1 out of every 2 hybrids sold) sales were down in December of 2008.  Dwindling stock plus anticipation of the new generation Prius was keeping new buyers away.   So, the 48% increase in Prius sales over last years numbers isn't as great as it looks.

While these numbers aren't final (I only have the total numbers from Toyota, Honda and Ford so far), it's clear that 2009 will end up being down for the year by as much as 8% from last year.  The recession, lower fuel costs, a run down in anticipation of the new Prius, and a redirection of hybrids to Japan as sales have taken off there have all combined to keep hybrid sales down despite the introduction of several new models. 

But 8% down means that overall hybrid sales will still be way over the overall vehicle sales in the US over the past year (down 21% for the year).

Stay tuned for the monthly sales report sometime soon.

Step Up and Last Three Rounds, I Dare Ya!

So then, will no one step up and attempt to compete with the Prius???

Honda's Prius-Fighter Is Stuck in First - BusinessWeek

So far this year, the Prius is outselling the Insight by nearly 6 to 1. Other carmakers are watching closely. General Motors, for one, is reviewing its entire hybrid strategy. In late November, GM shelved plans for a 53-mpg Prius fighter for its bread-and-butter Chevrolet brand.

With the Insight failing to compete with the Prius, will no others be able to challenge the Toyota dominance in the hybrid world?  Toyota sells 3 out of every 4 hybrids in the US.  1 of ever 2 hybrids sold is a Prius.  1 out of every 100 (or a bit more, really) cars sold in the US is a Prius.

That's a lot to overcome, but it should still be possible.  If the rest of the auto market is competitive across the various types of cars, why can't hybrids be more competitive?

The cost is a big challenge, of course.  A decade of sales gives Toyota a big advantage in technology advancements and engineering cheaper solutions.

Also GM and others may decide it just isn't worth it.  Nissan has decided to work on building all electric, while Audi has focused on diesel.  GM is hoping to beat Toyota to the plug-in market with the Volt.  Ford and Honda seem to be the only real competitors in the hybrid  world, but they're so far back that Goliath seems to be winning without even noticing he's in a fight.

Edmunds Predicts Slight Uptick in Hybrid Sales for 2010

Edmunds is predicting 11.5 million cars will be sold in the US in 2010. That's up from the 10.3 million cars and trucks from 2009. Of those, 3.2 percent in 2010 will be hybrids, up from the 2.8 percent (assuming they are right about December) for 2009.  3.2 percent equates to 368,000 units sold in 2010, up from 288,400 units in 2009.

That means Edmunds expect the half a percent gain each year will continue.

"Most car shoppers will focus on value and fuel economy as the economy continues to recover," stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "It has already become trendy to make sensible choices, and we expect that this will be a theme for 2010 sales."

In 2009, diesel market share will be 2.1 percent. Edmunds expects that to remain stable at about 2.2 percent for 2010. But a stable market share in a year with increased number of sales, means the numbers will go up.

My question is, do these figures include the new plug-ins on the way?

BTW, I don't expect plug-in hybrids (or E-REV vehicles like the Volt) to actually make a big impact one way or the other in 2010, as the number available will still be very low.  I just wasn't sure where they were being counted.

Hybrid Car Sales, November 2009

Hybrid cars sales were up over 20% for the month of November, even though car sales in general were flat in comparison to last year.  Hybrid car sales are still down 11% for the year, but recent months have been showing a big upwards trend.

Monthly Sales		November 2008		November 2009		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Chrysler	Aspen/Durango	35	0.2	0	0	-100
Ford	Escape/Mariner	1,361	8.5	960	4.9	-29.5
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0.0	1,401	7.1	0.0
GM	Escalade	0	0.0	115	0.8	0.0
GM	Silverado/Sierra	0	0.0	156	0.8	0.0
GM	Tahoe/Yukon	767	4.8	374	1.7	-55.8
Honda	Accord	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Honda	Civic	1,043	6.5	243	1.2	-76.7
Honda	Insight	0	0.0	1,403	7.1	0.0
Nissan	Altima	353	2.2	503	2.6	42.5
Toyota	Camry	2,174	13.6	1,465	7.5	-32.6
Toyota	GS 450h	42	0.3	37	0.2	-11.9
Toyota	HS 250h	0	0.0	1,407	7.2	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	907	5.7	722	3.7	-20.4
Toyota	LS600hL	37	0.2	15	0.1	-59.5
Toyota	Prius	8,660	54.1	9,617	49.0	11.1
Toyota	RX 400h	624	3.9	1,210	6.2	93.9
Total		16,003		19,628		22.7
Cumulative Sales		Cumulative 2008		Cumulative 2009		% Change
Make	Model	N	%	N	%
Chrysler	Aspen/Durango	35	0	0	0.0	-100.0
Ford	Escape/Mariner	18,373	6.3	15,323	5.9	-16.6
Ford	Fusion/Milan	0	0.0	15,336	5.9	0.0
GM	Escalade	322	0.1	1,850	0.7	442.2
GM	Silverado/Sierra	0	0.0	1,319	0.5	0.0
GM	Tahoe/Yukon	4,626	1.6	4,697	1.9	3.8
Honda	Accord	197	0.1	1	0.0	-99.5
Honda	Civic	30,261	10.4	14,648	5.7	-51.6
Honda	Insight	0	0.0	18,933	7.3	0.0
Nissan	Altima	8,109	2.8	8,515	3.3	5.0
Toyota	Camry	44,384	15.2	21,374	8.3	-51.8
Toyota	GS 450h	627	0.2	415	0.2	-33.8
Toyota	HS 250h	0	0.0	4,719	1.8	0.0
Toyota	Highlander	18,501	6.4	10,057	3.9	-45.6
Toyota	LS600hL	930	0.3	243	0.1	-73.9
Toyota	Prius	151,027	51.9	127,907	49.5	-15.3
Toyota	RX 400h	13,737	4.7	12,866	5.0	-6.3
Total		291,129		258,203		-11.3

An increase in Prius sales, along with sales from the new Honda Insight, Lexus HS,  Fusion Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid, more than made up for the drop in sales for the Civic, Highlander,
and Ford Escape/Mercury Mariner.

Toyota was the volume leader, as usual, with 3 out of 4 hybrids sold coming with a Lexus or Toyota nameplate.  Toyota was up 16% for the month.

Honda was up almost 58%, with new Insight sales making up for the loss in Civic Hybrid sales.  It seems clear that the new Insight, which Honda intended as a competitor for the Prius, has become the Civic Hybrids biggest competitor instead.

Ford hybrid car sales were up 73% with the new Fusion and Milan Hybrids creating 7% of the overall hybrid market sales.

Nissan Altima Hybrid sales were also up by 42.5%.  The Altima Hybrid is limited to sales in just some states that require California emissions.

GM hybrid car sales dropped by 16%, down from 768 units to 645 units. 

The downturn in the economy, lower gas prices, and a priority set by Toyota to sell in Japan first (sales of hybrids in Japan are through the roof because of incentives and subsidies from the government) have kept sales for 2009 down.  Add in the sales depression as customers waited for the next generation Prius and you have a bad overall year despite the recovery in the past couple of months.

It should be noted that sales may be down for hybrids, but clearly not as bad as for other vehicle sectors.  Hybrid car sales have recovered faster, helped by the introduction of new models and the third generation Toyota Prius.  Except for the Nissan Altima Hybrid, the models that were on sale for the full 2008 will all be down for the year. 

It should also be noted that sales are still way down from two years prior, when hybrids had their best sales month ever of 33,233.  That was 1.7X higher than this months sales.
Related:
Hybrid Car Sales, November 2008
Hybrid Car Sales, October 2009