Hybrid Car Review

The government is predicting no growth in U.S. oil consumption until 2030. This is the first time in 20 years that no growth has been predicted.

The prediction is based on the new CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed increase in oil prices as the economy recovers.

What may be even more remarkable, the government is now predicting the increased us of domestically produced biofuels, rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices will lead to a decline of 58 percent in net import share of total liquids supplied to 40 percent by 2025. It will then increase to 41 percent by 2030.

The EIA is also predicting the import shore of total natural gas use will also decline from 16 percent to 3 percent in 2030.

The government is predicting the price of oil will once again rise as the growth exceeds the supply of non-OPEC related countries.  That will raise the price of oil from it's current $60 (or so) to about $130 per barrel (in 2007 dollars, $189 in nominal dollars) in 2030.

Current laws will also lead to a sharp increase in unconventional vehicle technologies, including flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles.  A decline will be seen in the new light-truck share of total light-duty vehicle sales.  Hybrid vehicles will increase from their 2 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2007 to 38 percent in 2030.  Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) will grow to 90,000 vehicles by 2014, supported by the recently enacted tax credits.  By 2030, PHEVs will account for 2 percent of new light vehicle sales.